CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-11-01T05:12:00-CME-001)

Issued 2014 Nov 02 1332 UTC
Product documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu

SIDC URSIGRAM 41102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Nov 2014, 1311UT
COMMENT: The background of the Xray flux is at the B-level. Flaring
activity was limited to three C-class flares, originating from Catania
sunspot group 3 (NOAA AR 2201). The strongest flare was a C7.2 flare,
peaking at 16:46 UT on November 1.    Three CMEs lifting off on November 1
were observed in coronagraphic imagery.     A first partial halo CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 imagery, with first  measurements at 5:12
UT in LASCO-C2 and 5:30 UT in LASCO-C3 data. The  CME is associated to the
filament eruption at 4:00 UT near Catania sunspot group 2.  The CME is
travelling mainly in the eastern direction with a projected speed of 687
km/s (Cactus estimate).  SOHO/LASCO-C2 and C3 detected a second CME with
first measurement at 15:48 UT in LASCO-C2  and at 16:54 in LASCO-C3. This
CME is either related to a backsided event (no STEREO data available to
confirm) or related to the C7.2 flare. The CME is propagating mainly to the
south with a  projected speed of about 700 km/s.   The third CME was
observed in  SOHO/LASCO-C2 (first measurement at 19:00 UT) is believed to
be backsided and hence is not expected to  have any Earth-bound component.
There is a chance that a glancing blow of the first CME might arrive at
Earth, with an estimated arrival time of November 3 at 17:50 UT.    Flaring
activity at the C-level is expected to continue. The proton flux of the
10MeV protons increased on November 1 and values observed by ACE reached a
maximum of 9 pfu at around 19:20 UT, which is  near the event threshold.
The proton flux will likely remain enhanced for the next day after which it
returns to it's background level.     The interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude maximum decreased from 10 to 3 nT, with a current value of 6 nT,
as observed by ACE. The solar wind speed varied between 420 and 540 km/s.
Quiet to active conditions are expected, with limited  chances for minor
storm conditions due to CH high speed stream influences within the next 24
hours and the possible arrival of a glancing blow of the November 1 CME.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy